Shots At Goal Analysis
A relatively simple strategy that football backers can employ when selecting teams is to try to identify the side you feel will 'boss the shots' at goal in a match. The evidence below will show you why.
The analysis covers all matches played in our League One, League Two, Scottish Prem, Scottish Championship, Scottish League One and Scottish League Two since the start of the 2016-17 season through to the end of the 2019-20 season.
The basic results from backing home, draw and away outcomes in these matches has shown quite a bias towards home teams.
Historically this is not typical. These leagues are generally more sympathetic towards backing away teams than these results imply.
The analysis covers all matches played in our League One, League Two, Scottish Prem, Scottish Championship, Scottish League One and Scottish League Two since the start of the 2016-17 season through to the end of the 2019-20 season.
The basic results from backing home, draw and away outcomes in these matches has shown quite a bias towards home teams.
Historically this is not typical. These leagues are generally more sympathetic towards backing away teams than these results imply.
Backing every home team would have lost 0.88% on turnover. Backing every draw would have lost 7.41% on turnover. Backing every away side would have lost 5.83%. All returns are based on placing a one point single win bet at the best odds available from five leading bookmakers at the time the Winabobatoo magazines are published. This is Thursday for weekend games, and Monday for midweek games.
The next table shows the returns from backing home sides relative to the number of shots at goal they have in a match:
The next table shows the returns from backing home sides relative to the number of shots at goal they have in a match:
If you can identify the home teams that will have 10 or more shots at goal, you should be in a good place.
The win rate for home sides is very poor when they have fewer than 10 shots in a match.
Away returns relative to the number of shots the away team has:
The win rate for home sides is very poor when they have fewer than 10 shots in a match.
Away returns relative to the number of shots the away team has:
Bearing in mind this period hasn't been favourable for away sides, finding the 10+ chance creators hasn't quite been as rewarding as finding the 10+ home sides but there's clear evidence that an away team that has fewer than 10 shots in a game may well be up against it.
As well as creating chances, a team needs to stop the opposition from doing the same.
The next tables shows the 'Shots Balance' for the match.
If the home team has 12 shots with the away team having 8 shots, the 'Shots Balance' is +4.
If the home team has 10 shots with the away team having 15 shots, the 'Shots Balance' is -5.
Home returns are first:
As well as creating chances, a team needs to stop the opposition from doing the same.
The next tables shows the 'Shots Balance' for the match.
If the home team has 12 shots with the away team having 8 shots, the 'Shots Balance' is +4.
If the home team has 10 shots with the away team having 15 shots, the 'Shots Balance' is -5.
Home returns are first:
When the home team has the same number of shots or more, they've done well. Backing home teams that have five or more shots than the away side has done very well.
Away returns relative to the Shots Balance:
Away returns relative to the Shots Balance:
When away teams have more shots at goal than the home sides, it's generally not good news for the hosts. The main money are when finding the away sides that have five or more shots than the home team (shown in the -9 to -5 and -10 or Lower rows).
To complete the picture, the returns from backing the draw relative to the Shots Balance:
To complete the picture, the returns from backing the draw relative to the Shots Balance:
Backing the draw is the most difficult outcome to profit from. This table shows that you need to be pretty skilled at finding the games where the away side will just about edge the shots battle - but not by very much!
As a general rule, if we back a home team and they win the shots at goal but don't win the match, we may have been a shade unfortunate.
Similarly, if we back an away team and they win the shots at goal but don't win the match, we were probably an unlucky loser.
Should those 'unlucky losers' also have 10 or more shots at goal, we can perhaps feel even more hard done by!
Everything isn't always quite what it seems though. If a team takes the lead in a game, they don't need to score again to win. They will win providing they don't concede. Better class sides (those at Championship and English Premiership level) are better able to defend leads. Lower league defences generally aren't as well equipped to do this.
On teh occasions that a team tries to defend a lead, the shots at goal may not necessarily tell the whole truth about the way the game panned out.
Nevertheless, most of the time, it does pays to be on the teams that create the most chances and have more shots at goal than their opponents.
Mike
Copyright: Winabobatoo 2020
As a general rule, if we back a home team and they win the shots at goal but don't win the match, we may have been a shade unfortunate.
Similarly, if we back an away team and they win the shots at goal but don't win the match, we were probably an unlucky loser.
Should those 'unlucky losers' also have 10 or more shots at goal, we can perhaps feel even more hard done by!
Everything isn't always quite what it seems though. If a team takes the lead in a game, they don't need to score again to win. They will win providing they don't concede. Better class sides (those at Championship and English Premiership level) are better able to defend leads. Lower league defences generally aren't as well equipped to do this.
On teh occasions that a team tries to defend a lead, the shots at goal may not necessarily tell the whole truth about the way the game panned out.
Nevertheless, most of the time, it does pays to be on the teams that create the most chances and have more shots at goal than their opponents.
Mike
Copyright: Winabobatoo 2020